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plot (1-p)^15 + 15*(p)*(1-p)^14 + 105*(p^2)*(1-p)^13 + 455*(p^3)*(1-p)^12 = 0.0905
plot (1-p)^15 + 15*(p)*(1-p)^14 + 105*(p^2)*(1-p)^13 + 455*(p^3)*(1-p)^12 = 0.0905
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