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1 * 0.25 + 1/2 * 0.75 * 0.25 + 1/3 * 0.75^2 * 0.25 + 1/4 * 0.75^3
1 * 0.25 + 1/2 * 0.75 * 0.25 + 1/3 * 0.75^2 * 0.25 + 1/4 * 0.75^3
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